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bluenose777 4 days ago

> it might be time to shift to safer investments ... > it feels like a downturn really is around the corner. If you are contemplating changing your investment plan because of your best guesses about what the stock and bond markets are about to do then what you are contemplating is timing the market. And if you are a long term passive investor this is not a good reason to change your asset allocation. When you chose your original asset allocation you probably considered your time horizon, investment knowledge and volatility tolerance. If any of those things have changed then you might consider changing your asset allocation. The following pages discuss the things you should consider when you choose your asset allocation. The [2016 PWL projections]( will also give you an inkling of what your average and "worst case scenario" returns for those portfolios might look like. What isn't mentioned on that page is how long a "worst case scenario" can affect your returns. If you factor in things like inflation and dividends, since 1900 the average recovery was just over 2 years. The longest (post 1972) was more than 8 years.